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Retirement Drawdown Calculator
You've hit retirement. Now the question flips: how long will your portfolio last? This calculator models inflation-adjusted withdrawals against your portfolio balance and real historical returns. See exactly when you would run out under different scenarios.
Portfolio depleted in 28 years
Consider reducing your monthly withdrawal or increasing your portfolio.
Withdrawal Rate
6.0%
moderate
Lasts
28 years
Balance at 30yr
$0
The 4% rule: Withdraw 4% of your portfolio per year ($20,000/yr or $1,667/mo) for a high probability of lasting 30+ years. You're currently withdrawing 6.0%.
How the Retirement Drawdown Calculator Works
How drawdown is modelled
Each year we apply your withdrawal (escalated by inflation), then apply that year's return to the remaining balance. We continue until the balance hits zero or you reach age 100. The result: years your portfolio lasts under your assumptions.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's the 4% rule?
A heuristic from the Trinity Study: withdrawing 4% of your initial portfolio each year (adjusted for inflation thereafter) has historically sustained 30+ year retirements across most US market windows. A starting point, not a guarantee.
What is sequence-of-returns risk?
A bad market in your first few years of retirement is far more dangerous than a bad market 20 years in, because your portfolio shrinks while you're also withdrawing. Conservative planners hold 1–3 years of cash to avoid selling during early downturns.
How conservative should I be?
Depends on flexibility. If you can cut spending in bad years, 4–4.5% is reasonable. If you have fixed obligations (mortgage, healthcare), 3–3.5% gives much higher confidence.
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